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A couple of weeks ago I posed a problem/question. If Pierce/Garnett/Rondo is injured for the week/month/season, what is your plan if you’re Doc/Danny? If one is to ask others to ponder, then taking a stab at the conundrum is only polite, so here goes.

Dateline: September 6, 2012––24 days until the start of training camp!

Pulling Paul Pierce
As the playoffs wore on, and the Celtics wore down, none were more visibly affected than Paul Pierce. The knee sprain/bruise left him limping down the court and reduced his never-quick movement to a crawl. Could a week on the bench (and in the trainer’s room) have brought him back strong? Who knows, but behind him the Celtics only had Mikael Pietrus, still not right after a severe concussion; Marquis Daniels who never got back in stride after spinal surgery the year before; Sasha Pavlovic who has never recaptured the groove he showed back with the Cleveland LeBron’s several years ago; and Brandon Bass (and the fact that he defended some against LeBron is a measure of how dire were the straits in which Boston found itself) whose power forward position was already thin. So what’s different this year if Pierce goes down for a week or longer? Actually he doesn’t have to falter, I have urged that Doc employ a large dose of Popovich approach by alternating sitting out Pierce and Garnett in one or the other of back-to-backs—so rather than contingency, you might consider this a scheduled plan.

The best news is that this is the scenario for which there are some reasonable answers, not perfect or even necessarily successful, but reasonable. Jeff Green steps right into Paul’s shoes. He won’t be the unstoppable force Pierce once was, but then again, neither is Pierce as age creeps up on him. Backing up Green is Courtney Lee.

With 138 minutes to cover at the point and wing positions, the breakout might go:
PG Rondo 36, Terry 12
SG Bradley 32, Lee 16
SF Green 32, Lee 16

Of course this works better if Avery Bradley is healthy. If he is out the first month or two then you have another 32 minutes to cover at guard. I think Doc will go with Keyon Dooling and boosting Jason Terry’s minutes. Now I was very disappointed in Doolings’ ability to lead and direct the offense last year, so I am putting his time in at the two guard position. One of the interesting things to see worked out in the preseason is whether Terry or Dooling will start the offense when Rondo is off the court. Until AB comes back, when Pierce is out you might see:
PG Rondo 36, Terry 12
SG Lee 16, Terry 13, Dooling 19
SF Green 32, Lee 16
I’ve given you what I think Doc will do, but I would lean toward incorporating some of the new blood into the absent Bradley’s minutes. Combinations I would expect to see tried in preseason (and potentially the “answer” to today’s question) are the wing positions manned by Lee and Joseph, or Christmas and Lee. At the very least I would prefer that half of Dooling’s minutes be invested in developing either Joseph or Christmas. Laying out a middle course would yield a minutes distribution of:
PG Rondo 36, Terry 12
SG Lee 16, Terry 13, Dooling 10, Christmas 9
SF Green 32, Lee 16
or
PG Rondo 36, Terry 12
SG Lee 25, Terry 13, Dooling 10
SF Green 32, Lee 7, Joseph 9

The Christmas/Joseph choice might very well depend upon the opponents matching up, but I think it will be driven by the Celtics’ rookies’ ability to show they can handle the load and deserve the playing time.

Now a legitimate approach, and one I hope Doc resists, is to play your best talent longer minutes. Pushing Rondo to 40, and Green and Lee to 38, is not unreasonable and indeed is well below the minutes load with which Rivers has saddled Rondo, Pierce, and Allen in recent seasons. That strategy would likely procure short term gains (better outcome in the game that night) but at the cost of development and conservation (less experienced depth and less well-rested rotation players in the post season.) In this scenario the breakout might be:
PG Rondo 40, Terry 8
SG Lee 28, Terry 20
SF Green 38, Lee 10

So there you have it, coverage plans while resting or filling in for Paul Pierce. The fact that I am not really uncomfortable with the product on the floor in any of these combinations comes as quite a relief, and a distinctly different feeling from any available scenario in the past five years.