Will Doc make a change?

[hurdler]

“We’ve been reluctant to make many changes with our rotations and stuff like that,” he said after last night’s 111-91 loss to Memphis. “Maybe we have to think about that. Maybe not, but we have to think about it, because right now we’re just sketchy. We’re not playing consistent.”

What will actually happen

[nepg]

The more important question is "Will Ainge make a change?" Doc should have been fired a long time ago, but got a reprieve when Ainge brought in Ray, KG, and Thibadeau. I think it's pretty obvious Doc's not why this team won anything.

[nighthob]

I'm not sure why people are convinced that shuffling the 8-10 guys in the rotation will make a major difference. The problem is actually pretty simple, the pieces in the starting five don't fit together. They never really did fit well, offensively, but two years ago Pierce, Allen, & Garnett were so good it didn't matter. Now they're not, so the mismatched parts are killing them.

[hurdler]

Shuffling the deck isn't a silver bullet, but we've been doing the same thing for 2.5 seasons and the results for the last 2-3 months have been consistent. Pitino was constantly tweaking and that doesn't work well in the nba. Doc has been stable to a fault. When things aren't working well for an extended time, why not try a change for a couple weeks and see if it works or not. Then go back or try something new. I think there's a lot of complacency and going through the motions. Maybe change where a guy gets his minutes or adding/subtracting minutes might trigger something by design or by accident.

I don't think they are that mismatched. I think pierce/garnett fit together well. Pierce at his peak is clutch, but he can't carry a team alone. KG brings a lot offensively and defenslively from the 4 position. Ray has been the 5th wheel. He has always had lots of touches and be the main, and he had to give that up and become more reggie miller than he ever was before. And Rondo 2 years ago is a lot different than he is now and that mucks things up, especially as everyone else has dropped off. In hind sight, I'd like to undo the Ray trade. Green, West, and cap space would be nice to have right now. But KG wasn't smart enough to come over without ray. And as much as we won the championship because of ray, we also won it IN SPITE OF RAY (round 1, round 2).

[CaptChris]

That Right it's RAy's fault. Only solution.

PLAY TONY ALLEN! HE IS THE MAN!

[hurdler]

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nba/columns/story?columnist=forsberg_chris&id=4987267
Forsberg thinks it's perk or ray


So for the first time since the team traded for Kevin Garnett, a move that pretty much dictated Rivers' starting lineup for him, Boston's coach must decide if it's prudent to tinker with his use of personnel in order to salvage the current campaign.

http://celticshub.com/2010/03/11/doc-talks-making-changes-what-is-he-referring-to/
CelticsHub thinks it's perk or pierce


For better or worse, mostly for better, Doc had stood firm to his formula in the past 3 years in how he manages this team. He has kept to the same starting lineup (when healthy) and substitution patterns for the most part, always playing his starters together as much, if not more than any other team in the league the past few seasons.

In the past, this formula has worked, but this season due to injuries, lack of focus, regression in skill, whatever you want to call it, things have been thrown out of whack. This particular team, though having largely the same cast of characters, is a different animal.

http://www.celticsblog.com/2010/3/11/1368888/can-you-spare-some-change
more discussion... lots of suggestions, "moving deck chairs around on the titanic", fan talk

[nepg]

The problem is pointed out pretty clearly by celticsblog.

Doc's rotation is, and always has been akin to hockey lines. But when you don't have people who can score in your second line, that doesn't work in basketball.

It won't be the end-all, be-all fix, but Pierce and Allen need to not play together as much. They need one of them on the court at all times.

Sheed and KG can both play the 4 and 5. They could split the bigs minutes 3 ways so Perk, Sheed, and KG would play 32mpg. They can also just go with one big in smaller sets to get more offense and step-up the tempo.

Robinson covers the 1 and 2, Daniels covers the 2 and 3. Tony Allen's a situational defensive player, Finley's a situational offensive player.

Instead of having:
1. Rondo; 2. Ray; 3. Pierce; 4. Garnett; 5. Perk
and
1. Robinson; 2. Tony; 3. Daniels; 4. Baby; 5. Sheed

It should be more like:
1. Rondo; 2. Ray; 3. Pierce; 4. KG; 5. Perk
1. Rondo; 2. Daniels; 3. Pierce; 4. KG; 5. Sheed
1. Rondo; 2. Ray; 3. Daniels; 4. Sheed; 5. Perk
1. Robinson; 2. Ray; 3. Daniels; 4. KG; 5. Perk
1. Rondo; 2. Robinson; 3. Pierce; 4. Sheed; 5. Perk

...and such...

[nighthob]

Shuffling the deck isn't a silver bullet, but we've been doing the same thing for 2.5 seasons and the results for the last 2-3 months have been consistent. Pitino was constantly tweaking and that doesn't work well in the nba. Doc has been stable to a fault. When things aren't working well for an extended time, why not try a change for a couple weeks and see if it works or not.

The thing is, they don't have any changes they can make. Their bench is noticeably short of guys that should be starting in the NBA, aside from 'Sheed. Marquis Daniels is a useful roleplayer with a looong injury history and some rather well-documented holes in his game that hurt Boston as a member of the starting five (Because Boston would start every game in an offensive drought until Pierce or Ray entered to bring shooting to the lineup). Tony Allen is NBA Rainman.


I don't think they are that mismatched. I think pierce/garnett fit together well. Pierce at his peak is clutch, but he can't carry a team alone. KG brings a lot offensively and defenslively from the 4 position. Ray has been the 5th wheel. He has always had lots of touches and be the main, and he had to give that up and become more reggie miller than he ever was before. And Rondo 2 years ago is a lot different than he is now and that mucks things up, especially as everyone else has dropped off.

Their PG, increasingly, demands to be the focal point of the offense, and isn't good enough to justify the usage. Allen is a guy that needs shots to get into rhythm, and given his state as a fourth option here, doesn't ever get them.


In hind sight, I'd like to undo the Ray trade. Green, West, and cap space would be nice to have right now. But KG wasn't smart enough to come over without ray. And as much as we won the championship because of ray, we also won it IN SPITE OF RAY (round 1, round 2).

No Ray, no title. And not much of a future as compensation. (Remember that the original Garnett deal included the fifth pick, so Boston wasn't getting Green in any event.)

[hurdler]

The more things stay the same the more they change.
In 07-08 the big 3 had 41.1 fga/gm now it's down to 35.3. (-5.8)
The little 2 had 13.8 fga/gm 2 years a go, now it's up to 18.2 (+4.5)

So while the faces are still the same, the little guys are taking more shots. Are they trying to 'get theirs', are the old guys passive, is it doc's design??? The biggest change is that kg is taking 3 shots less and 1.5 ft less than 2 years ago. Rondo takes more shots than KG and is close to pierce and ray. We do not have a dominant big anymore, and it's tough to win that way.

[TheTruthIsGreen]

Biggest problem is that this team does not play as a cohesive unit anymore. Rondo taking shots because he has no open man to hit - most of his j's come at the last seconds when his penetration is shut, and everybody dares him to take it.

But the biggest problem - lack of ball movement, a lot of iso plays, Paul going iso at the top all the time - just like in the good ol' days with Fatty. Last game just has shown how easy it is now to shut them down, and how poorly we play transition D - even though have enough players making it back on time.

Bottom line - we have 5 players, not one team. There is no such a lineup change that can fix that - only will make it worse. It looks like the starting 5 lost this feel for each other - they did not play together for the biggest part of the season. No other cure - just suck it up, and to keep playing.

[hurdler]

Comparing this season with 2 years ago. We are still assisted in the low to mid 60% on made shots; our oponents are still in the mid 50s. That has actually been an improvement this year. The startling defensive stat is that we held opponents to 42% in 07-08, and now we are 45%, but in the last 10 games we give up 48% and are 5-5. That is probably consistent for us since Jan. We are no the same defensive team--not that our offense is great, but statistically similar.

@nighthob: rondo/ray is not a good fit in the backcourt. Rondo needs a 'posey'. Ray needs a set up man who is also content to also drop it off for ray and wait for an open 3. Tricky thing is that Rondo is locked in and ray will be better than any other option we can afford.

[texascelticsfan]

@nighthob: rondo/ray is not a good fit in the backcourt. Rondo needs a 'posey'. Ray needs a set up man who is also content to also drop it off for ray and wait for an open 3. Tricky thing is that Rondo is locked in and ray will be better than any other option we can afford.

Rondo needs a slasher, aka Daniels, whom would also help Paul, who is just as big a conflict with Ray.

Ray needs a shooter than has a decent handle, aka Robinson.

Maybe Michael Finley can explain to Ray why it works for Manu to come off the bench.

Why is Gilbert Arenas suspended but Delonte West still playing ball until his court date?

[Celtics17]

Redz didn't bring his guns to the lockerroom and pull them on a teammate.

[setshot33]

Doc..change the rotation??

Yeah. He'll change the rotation when he begins giving young guys PT in the regular season.


Bill Walker anyone?

We've needed bench scoring for 2 years yet Walker sat on the bench.

Give the guy some burn and look what he does for the Knicks: multiple 20 point games the last week and a half.

Good job Doc and Danny...............

/sarcasm

[nighthob]

It's easier to score when you have no defensive responsibilities.

[setshot33]

Yeah, the second unit REALLY plays some lockdown D...............

[CaptChris]

Biggest pick-ups Wallace and Daniels haven't doen Squat. When is the last game that they made a difference? Wallace has poisoned the TEAM with his ME attitude. I won't get in shape. I won't stop jacking up "3" 's. I am Rasheed!!!

Daniels has played a little "D", but has provided no firepower.

We don't have a 6th man -- or a 7th man.

[nighthob]

Yeah, the second unit REALLY plays some lockdown D...............

This isn't really relevant, they still have defensive responsibilities, regardless of how good they are at performing them (and they're better than you're giving them credit for). Walker wandered around lost on the defensive end here, and it hurt him everywhere. In New York, without any defensive responsibilities at all, he's free to fire up all the shots he wants. Put another way, guys playing on crappy teams are always able to fill a stat sheet. Take a look at the sorts of numbers being rolled up by Yi & Lee in New Jersey. But you know what? They still suck and no team starting either player has much of a playoff future. I have no regrets about Walker aside from one, they should have made this deal last summer when they would have been able to sign Nate long term as a result, and still have the MLE free this summer. Robinson is a much better player at this point.

[texascelticsfan]

Redz didn't bring his guns to the lockerroom and pull them on a teammate.

So getting pulled over by a cop with concealed/loaded weapons is not as bad as putting an unloaded gun in front of an already armed teammate?

When Delonte goes to jail in May just after the playoffs/finals, will people start wondering then?

Arenas had one Felony Gun Charge for carrying a pistol without a license.

West has SIX gun charges and has been indicted on two counts of carrying a dangerous weapon, two counts of carrying a handgun, two counts of transporting a handgun, one count of reckless driving and one count of negligent driving. He had over 112 Shotgun Shells and a 8.5 inch bowie knife. If convicted, West could face up to three years for each of the six gun charges and a $2,500 fine per offense.

EDIT: Since Delonte was in Maryland, his charges are misdemeanors I guess. The severity of the crime, particularly from someone with Depression issues, seems greater to me, but different place different laws.

[nepg]

This isn't really relevant, they still have defensive responsibilities, regardless of how good they are at performing them (and they're better than you're giving them credit for). Walker wandered around lost on the defensive end here, and it hurt him everywhere. In New York, without any defensive responsibilities at all, he's free to fire up all the shots he wants. Put another way, guys playing on crappy teams are always able to fill a stat sheet. Take a look at the sorts of numbers being rolled up by Yi & Lee in New Jersey. But you know what? They still suck and no team starting either player has much of a playoff future. I have no regrets about Walker aside from one, they should have made this deal last summer when they would have been able to sign Nate long term as a result, and still have the MLE free this summer. Robinson is a much better player at this point.

The thing is, one of the key +'s for Walker coming out of K-State was his defense. Let him play and adjust to everyone on the floor and get up to NBA speed... Ya, what New York runs helps him offensively (tough to tell how much), but the guy was a good defensive player in college and never was given the chance to become one in the NBA. And he's not just jacking up all the shots he wants whenever he wants (why shouldn't he be allowed to do that in Boston considering the offensive quality of the alternatives anyway?), he's getting himself in position and taking quality shots. He's shooting ~63% and nearly 45% from behind the arc.

Walker was a defensive prospect with offensive potential. Doc failed to let him play while he let scrubs eat up minutes. If this was Giddens playing like this, I'd be more inclined to agree because he never fit what Boston wants to do. But Walker's skills and style were a great fit.

[nighthob]

Regardless of his reputation he wandered around lost on defense in the NBA. He wasn't a lot better, defensively, in the minors. It happens to 6'6" college 4s that get moved to the 3. He may one day become a quality roleplayer, that day isn't today. And in New York he also gets to play against opponents on cruise control (oh how quickly 2006 & 2007 have vanished from memory), so there's a huge advantage there that he wasn't ever getting here. I do wish they'd traded for Nate last summer, because they could lock up the backup 1 spot for another five years. But that's really all there is to regret.

[CaptChris]

Putting up big numbers on a bad team is easy, if you have some talent. PP did it here for years. KG did it with the Timberwolves. Ray did it with several teams.

When you can get 20 shots a night and playing time, uyou look GOOD. When you go to a team where you are down to 12 shots a night, your numbers fall. Ask KG, Ray and PP. You may even have to play "D".

[TheTruthIsGreen]

Chris, you want it all - and right away.... Typically people get over this state by the age of 5...

I do consider this win as a positive development: easy win against a weak team, when easy win supposed to be. Was not the case - each game was as struggle for the past few weeks. They need this type of wins to get their confidence back, especially PP after all his struggles offensively. I hope to see more of the same against NY, will be disappointing to watch a close game.

Next step - win close games against the teams we should win anyway, if they are really close to being ready to go all the way in the playoffs. We will have Hou, Dal, Utah coming up as a measuring stick.

I do not put too much into this fiasco in Cle - the way they played the game was pretty darn close to watching the team right after the training camp. Too early - they are not ready yet. ISO at the top instead of ball movement (did not see a single pos with more than 2 passes), no spacing, nobody knows where to go at the switch, losing his own player 5 feet from the basket, giving up internal after FTs.... was as ugly as it gets... Paul obviously needs his legs back - was never double-teamed, could not slash or even to go up on a pull... They still have around 15 games to get it right - now it's up to Doc to fine-tune the team. It's unfortunate when you lose 2 best players mid-season, but I'm a believer.

Den on the 24th will be the major test. Will be fun.